2023 August 11

Daily news wrap-up

Nagorno-Karabakh oppo. leader Samvel Babayan: Russia's offer to launch Aghdam road in exchange for reopening Lachin was a faux deal. Superpowers must stop using us as puppets. || Peacekeepers using the blockade as a business opportunity. || Interviews with Babayan, Karen Sargsyan, ex-PM Aram
by ar_david_hh

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Russian press: the parties were close to reaching an agreement to use the Aghdam road and reopen Lachin but the Nagorno-Karabakh government backed away amid Azerbaijan's refusal to make concessions

KOMMERSANT: Russian government assesses the overall situation as very difficult. Azerbaijan isn't ready for concessions. All the efforts by the West and Russia have not given any results. The government of Nagorno-Karabakh is also persistent.

Russia offered a solution: launch the traffic via Aghdam with the help of the Red Cross, then reopen the Lachin Corridor 24 hours later. Initially, both sides expressed interest at a high level but Nagorno-Karabakh later demanded for the Lachin traffic to resume the same day, not later.

Nagorno-Karabakh later stated that the goods entering through the Aghdam road should not have Azerbaijani origin. Later [Azerbaijan kidnapped an ethnic Armenian hospital patient named Vagif Khachatryan who was traveling through the Lachin Corridor to Armenia]. No deal was reached. Russia believes the Aghdam road will eventually open. // end

Azerbaijan has confirmed that such offer existed but no deal was reached.

Nagorno-Karabakh demands the complete removal of the illegal Azerbaijani checkpoint on the Lachin Corridor, installed in violation of the Nov. 9 agreement.

Kommersant's source did not clarify what "reopening" the Lachin Corridor would entail. Would Azerbaijan continue to illegally stop to search the passengers and traffic while claiming the corridor is technically "open"? Would Azerbaijan illegally demand the transferred goods to be taxed while claiming the corridor is technically "open"?

[source,](https://civilnet.am/news/747001/ըստ-կոմերսանտի՝-աղդամից-կարմիր-խաչի-միջոցով-լղ-մատակարարումների-պայմանավորվածություն-էր-ձեռք-բերվել/)

Nagorno-Karabakh responds to Kommersant article:

The parties must follow the Nov. 9 agreement. Lachin must remain open. Tying Lachin to other roads unrelated to Nov. 9 agreement is unacceptable. Azerbaijan is using hunger as a weapon against the population of Nagorno-Karabakh.

[source,](https://factor.am/676610.html)

Nagorno-Karabakh opposition leader Samvel Babayan responds to Kommersant story: it was a faux deal by Russia trying to stay relevant in the region

REPORTER: Why did the deal fail?

BABAYAN: I was present during a meeting organized by the government to discuss that offer and I expressed my disapproval because the offer was superficial in nature. Russia is trying to show that it's still a regional player in response to the U.S.'s recent attempt to organize a meeting between the parties. We are a toy for superpowers, they are trying to promote their interests by using us.

From now on, I advise the superpowers to keep their little games to themselves. Both Armenians and Azeris have a tongue and know how to speak. We will meet face-to-face and discuss our issues. Thank you very much.

REPORTER: Kommersant writes that the parties had almost agreed but Nagorno-Karabakh was the one that rejected it at the last moment.

BABAYAN: I don't know what the government told Russia behind closed doors but a meeting was organized between all political forces and the government to discuss the offer. Everyone was against it.

These types of "negotiations" must stop now. We must have a clearly formulated document of topics that we want to discuss with Azerbaijan face-to-face before we send anyone.

Russia is done. They lost relevance the moment they surrendered the Lachin Corridor to Azerbaijan. They shouldn't make any noises now and try to exert their dominance anymore.

REPORTER: Nagorno-Karabakh president Arayik believes that Azerbaijan blocked the Lachin Corridor because Armenia is resisting and refusing to grant a "corridor" to Azerbaijan via Syunik. Do you agree?

BABAYAN: No. Absolutely no. Azerbaijan has blocked Lachin to subjugate the population of Nagorno-Karabakh so they'll have no choice but to "integrate". It's our fault that we didn't demand sufficient guarantees for the Lachin Corridor from the beginning, that we voluntarily surrendered territories [located between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh] without receiving sufficient guarantees.

What we need today is a document that'll be the basis for NK-AZ negotiations so we'll understand what each side really wants and what steps they are willing to take.

REPORTER: Nagorno-Karabakh government helped elect an ARF MP as the president of parliament. Does this signal a shift in Nagorno-Karabakh's foreign policy?

BABAYAN: They think it'll help activate the diaspora but I disagree. If anything, it could strain the relations with Armenia, which we can't afford right now.

REPORTER: You wrote letters to Serj in 2013 and Pashinyan in 2018 describing the types and quantities of weapons we needed to purchase, and in the event they couldn't be purchased, you explained that serious diplomatic concessions needed to be made.

Had they followed your advice then, do you believe we would have a different outcome in 2020, or do you believe Turkey-Azerbaijan-Russia were already determined to force Armenia to make painful concessions?

BABAYAN: We would have a different outcome. Azerbaijan wouldn't be able to launch a 2020-style war.

REPORTER: I've read your letters since 2013 and they predict the future correctly. Did Serj and Pashinyan ignore them because they *wanted* this outcome, or because they were shortsighted?

BABAYAN: When the War Commission was launched, I wanted them to investigate all the events dating back to 15 years. But they refused, so I refused to take part in the Commission. Going back 15 years would tell us if things were brought to this state knowingly and intentionally. We need to understand what the problem was with the acquisition of those weapons. If we had a personnel shortage, why didn't we take steps to ensure that, for example, 3 people are assigned to an artillery battery as opposed to 7?

REPORTER: You believe we need to be pragmatic and agree to concessions now to avoid bloodshed and to keep Nagorno-Karabakh Armenian. Your critics consider this a defeatist stance. Why is there a propaganda machine working against you?

BABAYAN: Because I'm the only public figure in Nagorno-Karabakh who isn't working as a spy for another state. My proposal is actually a standard practice: Before you send someone for negotiations you need to have a comprehensive document that describes the topics you want to negotiate, and your goals. I've never proposed turning us into an ethnic minority within Azerbaijan. If you aren't going to help me with this process, at least don't get in my way. We have too many hobo analysts, who understand nothing about Nagorno-Karabakh, opposing these efforts. They will smarten up gradually. Let's give them another 15-25 days.

REPORTER: Are there any circles in Russia, or perhaps Russia itself, who are opposed to your activities in Nagorno-Karabakh? Is Russia afraid of being pushed out of the region if Nagorno-Karabakh chooses your route and starts resolving its problems with Azerbaijan without Russia's "help"?

BABAYAN: Let's not single out Russia here. If Nagorno-Karabakh exercises true independence and takes steps to resolve its own issues, no foreign state will like that because they prefer to have a puppet.

Kommersant wrote that Nagorno-Karabakh had initially agreed to the Aghdam deal but turned it down at the last moment. When Russia figures out how and why it was turned down, when they finally realize that we refuse to be puppets anymore, they will understand what's going on.

REPORTER: What is Russia's solution to this conflict?

BABAYAN: Yesterday Russia copy-pasted a text from international laws regarding ethnic minorities, and presented it as a solution. Russia says the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, within Azerbaijan, will have their separate sports tournaments, preserve their language and schools, and all that stuff, lol. Even Azerbaijan hasn't dared to present anything like that.

Knowing that Nagorno-Karabakh will be against this idea, Russia will propose it anyway, expecting it to be rejected and the conflict to continue. This is how they control the region and promote their interests. The only losers are Armenians and Azeris.

REPORTER: The conflict was frozen after the 90's war. After the 2020 war, Vladimir Putin said the conflict should be frozen again and left for future generations. Is Russia trying to freeze the conflict so it can later unfreeze it at any time to resolve geopolitical issues? Also, what's your stance on the West's strategy?

BABAYAN: Any country has its interests and solutions. We have ours. We must sit down and discuss our issues directly with Azeris. Azerbaijan must realize that if the conflict is frozen again, two decades later we're going to have another bloody war and there is no guarantee they will win.

REPORTER: What can/should the Republic of Armenia do?

BABAYAN: 1) To do what they are currently doing: work with international institutions, but with more vigor. 2) Send more economic aid.

[source,](https://www.facebook.com/1in.am/videos/182453461514185) [source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiDhv-M6Zyw)

ex-PM Aram Sargsyan about the Nagorno-Karabakh war

...

SARGSYAN: Armenia's #1 issue today is the outdated army management and insufficient armament. Russia was supposed to arm us but didn't. At least the West has functional weapons. Russian weapons have been proven to be inferior while their military education is worthless. Armenian generals received their education in Russian academies with a bottle of cognac. Azeri generals were in the same spot.

On the 14th day of the war, Ilham Aliyev complained about the difficulties on the battlefield, suggesting that Armenians were too entrenched. That was the best moment to reach a peace agreement but Russia proposed an unfavorable plan and no agreement was reached. Turkey's CoGS sent its experts to Azerbaijan, sidelined Azeri CoGS, and took full control over the management and strategy with NATO standards.

Armenia needs weapons from France, U.S., and the civilized world. Russia doesn't have what we need. *"The West is not providing any tangible support,"* critics say. Who do you think prevented Azerbaijan from invading Syunik to force a corridor in 2021-2022? Western diplomats stood in Syunik and then dispatched their border observers there.

Russia and Azerbaijan still want that corridor but are silent because of the opposition from the collective West. Aliyev had to back away and announce that by "corridor" he doesn't mean a sovereign corridor, and that he similarly refers to China's trade route as a "corridor". The West helped prevent the formation of a "corridor" through Syunik.

The Armenian government is still too cautious and afraid of adopting a closer stance toward the West. Sometimes you have to *do* it. Make the step, sign an agreement of strategic cooperation with the U.S. if you want more support, and not just military support.

The former U.S. ambassador revealed in 2021 that the U.S. is ready to invest $8 billion in the renewable energy sector with an emphasis on solar, primarily in the Syunik province of Armenia, on the hills near village Lichk [between Kajaran and Meghri].

At first, I thought it was purely a political program to "save" Syunik but the calculations of the sunny days in Armenia made it obvious there is a strong economic incentive as well. That area has many sunny days in a year.

That statement by the ex-ambassador was made publicly. Has anyone ever reached out to him? I have, but I'm not the government.

Have you ever heard of any Western leader stating that Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan? Vladimir Putin and Sergey Lavrov, on the other hand, have stated exactly that. Lavrov said that Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh must become ethnic minorities within Azerbaijan, without any status or a line of contact.

We must respect Russia, but we must understand that they've become our enemy. Their interests align with Azerbaijan's. Don't expect any empathy from the Russian peacekeepers in Lachin. They aren't going to drive those parked humanitarian trucks to Nagorno-Karabakh.

The issue with Russia goes deeper. Their agents are everywhere in Armenia. Some of them see Armenia as a Tatarstan within Russia, others took funds from Gasprom to run for upcoming municipal elections in Armenia while promising to make water, electricity, and transportation free.

Right now Armenia should focus on getting a UNSC resolution on the unblocking of the Lachin Corridor. I'm confident we'll succeed. And if there is a veto, the Armenian public will see the face of our foe. End the practice of timidity. You don't need approval from Moscow before your every step.

full: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9j5JAKzcnXg?t=2192

sociologist Karen Sargsyan about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

SARGSYAN: Aliyev is in a situation where he can only increase the bet. Unlike his fellow dictator Putin, he doesn't have the flexibility to slip up. It's further complicated by the appearance of new cards in the hands of Pashinyan: the World Court ruling and the analysis made by the former prosecutor of the International Criminal Court about the impending genocide in Nagorno-Karabakh.

That analysis was picked up by the international media. They are comparing Nagorno-Karabakh to Srebrenica and Khartoum, with the main point being the need to act immediately to prevent the repetition of previous genocides, so billions of dollars won't need to be spent later to address the outcome.

German outlets, big and small, are criticizing PM Scholz for remaining silent.

Foreign Minister Mirzoyan has made 12 phone calls over the past 3 days, all addressed to Western and non-CSTO countries. He is on the right track. He always mentions that Azerbaijan's goal is genocide.

As I've said earlier, Aliyev has chosen the path of Vladimir Putin: raise the bet higher and higher. But if Putin can use the factor of internal consolidation and concentration of power to frequently screw up by getting semi-couped by Prigozhin and acting like nothing has happened, by losing several occupied regions of Ukraine and ignoring it, by threatening strikes and never following through with the promise, Aliyev can't afford the same weakness.

Aliyev doesn't have that luxury. All it took is one small village in Azerbaijan to complain about environmental issues for the entire country to react. There are ropes wrapped around Aliyev that can tighten at any moment. The only thing Aliyev is successfully selling today is the limited quantities of fossil energy.

Azerbaijan is not in a position to ignore the Western demands today. Pashinyan needs to send humanitarian aid to Ukraine and declare that Armenia recognizes Ukraine's borders under the 1991 CIS agreement, just as we want Azerbaijan to recognize our 1991 borders.

It doesn't matter anymore if it'll piss Russia off. They have already sold you to Turkey and Azerbaijan in exchange for Turkish sea routes and Azeri trade routes.

Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh are playing backgammon with Azeri soldiers while the Armenian population serves. It's business for them. As of December data, during the blockade, peacekeepers would import food and sell it to the Armenian population for ֏10,000 a box or $10,000 per lorry.

Ilham Aliyev is a war criminal. Under international law, the death of those two children and the frequent fainting of pregnant women in Nagorno-Karabakh, caused by the blockade, is considered a war crime. We must emphasize the similarities between the actions of Russia and Azerbaijan.

full: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwuMEz8cykA&t=2458s

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Link to original report and comments: https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/15oq33w/nagornokarabakh_oppo_leader_samvel_babayan/